Betting Analysis
If a team wins 5-0 in a game, and they've lost their 3 previous games, it's too early to conclude with a turn of form. Only when teams have been performing well in several games, we can say that a team is "in form".
It's often more important to check your objects 5 latest games. First check the results, then check the opposition. Was the previous games against tough opposition? Had the opposition been playing well for some time at the time? Was it a marginal victory with slices of luck in it? Did the opposition get players sent off? Harsh referring decisions? Did your team play well in previous games, but did not have the little luck needed to beat assumed better teams?
Listen to match reports, they often produce useful information for punters. It's important not to look at the results only, but identify the happenings behind the result. This is the info that punters use to identify value bets, and teams on the way up or down. Find the trends, and use them well. Teams are often on several bad runs and good runs during a season. Teams rarely lose and win every other game. No, teams often lose several in a row, and then win several in a row. We must identify these periods before the bookmakers do.
Note that the bookmakers are using the form factor quite heavily when determining their odds. League tables and form is the major criteria used by the bookies.
For punters, it is important to identify teams "on the way up" earlier than the bookies, thus we get better odds. In order to beat the bookie we need to know something the bookie does not know. We must gather info from several sources. TV, newspapers, internet enzymes, etc.
Sports Betting Basics
Different sports have different systems for odds making
and betting. There are
even different systems for the same sport, depending on what kind of game the
bettor wants to play. But to understand any of these systems, you first have to
understand the jargon.
Action - Action is simply betting activity. Phrases such as "I
want in on the action"
or "Show me where the action is" come from this term. Since betting on sports is
illegal in many places, you can't always look up your local bookie in the phone
book.
Handicap - In sports betting, "to handicap" is to give one team
a points advantage
in order to level the betting field.
Handle - The handle is the total amount of money wagered on
bets. Super Bowl
betting generates the biggest handle of the year for most bookies.
Sportsbook - An establishment that takes bets, also known as a
book. An individual
who takes bets is a bookie.
Juice - This is the percentage of all bets taken by the bookie
as profit. The juice is
also known as the vig, short for vigorish. Sometimes bookies take a straight
percentage
of the handle, but more often the vig is figured into the odds.
The Spread - The point spread is used in high-scoring sports
like football and basketball.
It is basically a handicap used to make all games competitive in the eyes of
bettors. The
spread gives one team an advantage of a few points. Standard notation for the
point spread
shows the favoured team first, followed by a negative number (the actual
spread). So if Buffalo
was playing against Green Bay, and Buffalo were favoured to win by seven points,
it would
look like this:
Buffalo -7; GREEN BAY+7
If someone bets on Buffalo to win, Buffalo would actually have to win by more
than seven
points for the bet to pay off. It's as if Green Bay were given a seven-point
lead at the start of
the game. Picking Green-Bay they would need to win or can lose by six points to
win the bet.
The Money Line - In sports like baseball, scoring isn't high
enough to use a point spread.
The money line is used instead. A money line listing might look like this:
WHITE SOX -1.20; Astros +1.10
Sometimes the decimal point is left out, so 120 is the same as 1.20. If you want
to bet on the
favoured team, the WHITE SOX, you have to bet $1.20 for every $1 you want to
win. If you want to bet on the underdog ASTROS, you have to bet $1 for every
$1.10 you want to win. This is known as the dime line, because ten cents
separate the favourite from the underdog. Most bookies offer a dime line,
although it can increase to a 20 cent line or greater if one team
is heavily favoured.
If the money line seems confusing, think of it as a simple pricing system. You
want to win a
certain amount of money on your bet. Chances are greater that the favoured team
will win
the game, so it costs more to bet on the favourite to win that amount than it
costs to bet on
the underdog.
Here's an example: Imagine that using the money line above with the
White Sox and the
Astros, you want to win about $100. If you place your bet on the favoured White
Sox, you
will pay the bookie $120. If you win, you get your $120 back, plus $100 in
winnings. If you
lose, the bookie keeps your $120. If you bet $100 on the Astros, you'll get $110
in winnings if they win, and only lose $100 if they lose.
Pick'em - Sometimes money line games will be listed as "pick"
or "pick'em." This means that
the teams are considered equal, and the line on both teams is -1.10. Betting on
either team
requires $1.10 per $1 in potential winnings.
Pools, cards, and parlays - A parlay is just a combination bet.
Instead of making five separate bets on five different games, the bettor places
a single parlay bet, hoping he or she can predict the outcome of all five games.
If any one of the games is a loser, the entire parlay is a loser. The payout is
better for parlays, because the odds of successfully picking multiple winners
are much tougher to beat. Most people are familiar with parlays through office
betting pools or football cards. If you've ever paid $5 to select your winners
from a list of that week's football games (sometimes using the spread, sometimes
using the straight scores) in hopes of winning the weekly prize, then you have
made an informal parlay bet. Office pools don't usually involve actual bookies
beyond the person who organizes the pool, and no one takes juice from the pool.
All of the money is distributed to the winner or winners.
**Normally if you wanted greater chances of being ahead in the long run, it's best to bet on money line with multiple picks; Don't combine your picks on a parlay. Profits increase will be much more gradual, but consistent and at a higher percentage. Parlays can be done from time to time (once a week) just not frequently.